Late-stageLegal Technology
Sizing the expansion opportunity, then backtesting the signal that was supposed to find it
Seven prioritised segments, sized three ways
Seven prioritised segments, sized three ways
Expansion was the growth engine and nobody could say what drove it. Loss reasons were rarely populated, growth notes were empty, and the recurring-revenue field was blank on the vast majority of records in one product's opportunity file. Win rates had been falling for two years and the decline was visible in every major vertical, but there was no agreed explanation.
The first wave read roughly 73,000 CRM records across seven exports: account qualifications, three years of expansion opportunities, line items, account firmographics, an expansion timeline, product-specific opportunities and contacts.
Median time from opportunity creation to close on these expansions was zero days. Over half closed the same day, and roughly three quarters closed within a week. That single fact changes the interpretation of everything else: this is not a sales cycle, it is an order-taking motion triggered by a product event.
SegmentRoughly a fifth of accounts are multi-expanders and produce close to eighty percent of expansion volume, averaging four expansions each. Another third expand exactly once. Nearly half never expand at all.
Across roughly 6,700 expansions, only about forty were tier upgrades, a rate of about one percent. Almost all of the ones that did happen were bundled with a seat addition rather than sold standalone, and bundled upgrades won at a materially higher rate than standalone ones.
Seat additions across all three tiers won at roughly 75 to 82 percent. Every add-on product won in the teens to twenties, and one integration add-on won at single digits across two dozen attempts.
Accounts in the healthiest health-score band expanded at around sixty percent with an average of two expansions each; accounts in the highest-risk band expanded at around forty percent with well under one.
The distribution failed a normality test decisively, so the analysis ran on rank-based methods, Wilcoxon, Mann-Whitney, Kruskal-Wallis, Theil-Sen, Spearman, with log-transformed parametric tests only as confirmation.
Seven prioritised segments, sized three ways
A sized addressable expansion opportunity across roughly 5,200 qualifying accounts, split into seven actionable segments with conservative, base and optimistic cases, and with the largest segment explicitly risk-adjusted down to its backtested conversion rate rather than carried at face value.
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7 steps
A repeatable list-import pipeline: normalize, domain-match, waterfall the email, then hand it over
A pipeline a new hire can run
Enrichment engine setup
5 steps
A reusable enrichment table for event leads, and contact data on a re-verification schedule
Enrichment table live and confirmed by the customer
CRM implementation
6 steps
Building a first real sales system for an AI company selling into enterprise
Three GTM pipelines live
